Estimates the future state
- Predicts demand, revenue, churn, risk or value
- Works at a defined horizon and granularity
- Can expose uncertainty
- Does not automatically choose an action
Forecasting vs Optimisation
Forecasting tells you what is likely to happen. Optimisation tells you what to do about it.
A forecast is a prediction. An optimisation model turns that prediction, together with objectives and constraints, into a recommended business action.
Chooses among feasible actions
- Uses forecasts or causal estimates as inputs
- Defines the business objective
- Respects capacity, budget, stock and policy constraints
- Returns a recommended move or allocation
One forecast, many possible decisions
The business value appears when the prediction changes a plan.
Forecast demand → optimise stock or assortment
Estimate demand by store or SKU, then decide what to stock, allocate or carry under inventory and space constraints. See assortment optimisation.
Forecast volume → optimise price, promotion or distribution
Estimate future volume, then compare the commercial levers that can change the outcome. See price elasticity modelling.
Forecast demand → optimise the production schedule
Use expected demand, orders and capacity to decide what runs, where, when and in what sequence.
Forecast bookings → change pricing or commercial action
Use booking pace and expected demand to decide where pricing, discount availability or marketing effort should change.
Predict churn → optimise the intervention
Identify customers at risk, then decide who should receive which treatment under budget and contact constraints.
Graphite Note decision chain
Prediction is one layer, not the end product.
Graphite Note can connect predictive models, causal evidence and optimisation so the output moves from expected outcome to feasible action.
What is likely to happen?
Forecast the future state at the level where a decision can still be made.
What can change it?
Use causal evidence where the question is about an intervention rather than a prediction alone.
Which feasible move is strongest?
Compare actions against the objective and the real operating constraints.
Deliver the recommendation
Put the decision into the workflow with expected impact and evidence.
Direct answers
Questions teams ask after they build a forecast.
What is the difference between forecasting and optimisation?
Forecasting estimates what is likely to happen. Optimisation compares feasible actions and constraints to recommend what should be done in response.
Does optimisation replace forecasting?
Usually not. A forecast is often an input to an optimisation problem. The forecast estimates future demand, risk or value; the optimiser decides how resources or actions should change.
What comes after a demand forecast?
That depends on the business decision. Examples include allocating stock, changing production schedules, adjusting pricing, choosing an assortment, prioritising customers or shifting budget.
Does every forecast need an optimiser?
No. Some forecasts support a straightforward human decision. Optimisation becomes valuable when there are multiple feasible actions, competing objectives or constraints such as capacity, budget, stock or policy.
Decision IntelligenceFrom signal and prediction to a governed business action.AutoMLAutomate repetitive model-building work without losing business context.Causal Machine LearningSeparate drivers from correlations and estimate intervention effects.Predictive AnalyticsForecast demand, score customers and anticipate business outcomes.Decision OptimisationCompare feasible actions and rank them by expected business impact.Forecasting vs OptimisationSee where prediction ends and the business decision begins.Decision APIDeliver recommendations, expected impact and evidence into workflows.Embedded Decision IntelligenceAdd a decision layer to ERP, CRM, BI, workflow and vertical software.Build vs BuyA practical framework for deciding whether to build, buy or embed.
Already have a forecast? Show us the decision that follows it.
We can structure the objective, feasible actions and constraints around the move your team needs to make.